1 00:00:12,549 --> 00:00:09,640 [Music] 2 00:00:14,980 --> 00:00:12,559 so today this is an astrobiology 3 00:00:18,310 --> 00:00:14,990 conference I think Africanist anyone 4 00:00:21,999 --> 00:00:18,320 here as to the importance of looking for 5 00:00:25,900 --> 00:00:22,009 life outside of Earth be its within the 6 00:00:28,179 --> 00:00:25,910 solar system or beyond it so far we 7 00:00:30,670 --> 00:00:28,189 believe that our best possibility of 8 00:00:34,680 --> 00:00:30,680 finding life on another planet is in 9 00:00:37,510 --> 00:00:34,690 finding a doppelganger or edit earth a 10 00:00:41,290 --> 00:00:37,520 terrestrial planet around the same size 11 00:00:45,849 --> 00:00:41,300 as Earth and residing within its 12 00:00:47,829 --> 00:00:45,859 habitable zone which has been gone over 13 00:00:51,340 --> 00:00:47,839 many times today but in case you weren't 14 00:00:53,650 --> 00:00:51,350 listening is the zone where if there is 15 00:00:56,739 --> 00:00:53,660 water on the planet then it would be in 16 00:01:01,090 --> 00:00:56,749 its liquid state this is because a lot 17 00:01:04,270 --> 00:01:01,100 of our theories as to the necessary 18 00:01:07,600 --> 00:01:04,280 factors to support life include having 19 00:01:10,240 --> 00:01:07,610 access to liquid water now I'm going to 20 00:01:12,969 --> 00:01:10,250 apologize before I start I sometimes 21 00:01:16,450 --> 00:01:12,979 have a really hard time being habitable 22 00:01:19,300 --> 00:01:16,460 I don't know why but if I butcher it too 23 00:01:22,210 --> 00:01:19,310 many times I'm going to switch over to 24 00:01:26,980 --> 00:01:22,220 the liquid water zone instead but we'll 25 00:01:29,770 --> 00:01:26,990 see how I go all right so in a paper 26 00:01:31,780 --> 00:01:29,780 that we published last year dr. Steven 27 00:01:33,790 --> 00:01:31,790 Kane myself and all the other wonderful 28 00:01:37,210 --> 00:01:33,800 people that you see listed at the top 29 00:01:41,440 --> 00:01:37,220 here we catalog all the Kepler Hubble 30 00:01:45,090 --> 00:01:41,450 zoom exoplanets we use the data release 31 00:01:49,780 --> 00:01:45,100 24 q1 through 17 start a vetting process 32 00:01:53,320 --> 00:01:49,790 which we combined with the dr 25 jello 33 00:01:56,470 --> 00:01:53,330 properties table we from a dr 25 we took 34 00:01:58,450 --> 00:01:56,480 out the effective temperature of the 35 00:02:01,200 --> 00:01:58,460 star and the stellar radius and 36 00:02:06,490 --> 00:02:01,210 recalculated the radius of planets 37 00:02:10,150 --> 00:02:06,500 semi-major axes and the effectives or 38 00:02:16,290 --> 00:02:10,160 the flux that was received by the planet 39 00:02:19,839 --> 00:02:16,300 to create a more up-to-date data set we 40 00:02:21,940 --> 00:02:19,849 define four different parameters into 41 00:02:25,510 --> 00:02:21,950 which each planet cell and 42 00:02:28,420 --> 00:02:25,520 in turn gave us four different tables 43 00:02:32,110 --> 00:02:28,430 the first two parameters were to do with 44 00:02:34,150 --> 00:02:32,120 the hubble zone either the planet fell 45 00:02:37,330 --> 00:02:34,160 into the conservative habitable zone or 46 00:02:38,860 --> 00:02:37,340 the optimistic capital zone so this has 47 00:02:41,380 --> 00:02:38,870 already been gone over a fair bit today 48 00:02:45,160 --> 00:02:41,390 but for those who weren't here or we're 49 00:02:47,500 --> 00:02:45,170 not listening as again so the 50 00:02:51,509 --> 00:02:47,510 conservative boundary on the inner edge 51 00:02:56,830 --> 00:02:51,519 which was divine but copper up ooh in 52 00:03:01,360 --> 00:02:56,840 2014 as 0.99 au is the runaway 53 00:03:04,660 --> 00:03:01,370 greenhouse limit where the liquid oceans 54 00:03:07,750 --> 00:03:04,670 would evaporate on the outer edge we 55 00:03:10,890 --> 00:03:07,760 have at one point seven a you the 56 00:03:15,150 --> 00:03:10,900 maximum greenhouse effect where a co2 57 00:03:18,539 --> 00:03:15,160 greenhouse effect is at its maximum the 58 00:03:22,509 --> 00:03:18,549 optimistic boundary the inner edge is at 59 00:03:25,330 --> 00:03:22,519 0.75 au which we call the recent Venus 60 00:03:27,880 --> 00:03:25,340 limit which is based on observations 61 00:03:31,060 --> 00:03:27,890 that Venus may have had water on its 62 00:03:35,620 --> 00:03:31,070 surface around one gig year ago and the 63 00:03:39,009 --> 00:03:35,630 outer edge is at 1.8 au we called the 64 00:03:42,250 --> 00:03:39,019 early Mars limits which based on the 65 00:03:45,490 --> 00:03:42,260 empirical observations that Mars may 66 00:03:50,380 --> 00:03:45,500 have been habitable about 3.8 GB years 67 00:03:54,190 --> 00:03:50,390 ago so the second two are based on 68 00:03:57,520 --> 00:03:54,200 planet size because we all know size 69 00:04:01,330 --> 00:03:57,530 matters so the planets could either be 70 00:04:06,460 --> 00:04:01,340 within of the less than two rest 71 00:04:08,530 --> 00:04:06,470 Earth radii bracket or a ball radii so 72 00:04:11,220 --> 00:04:08,540 even though there is a growing consensus 73 00:04:14,259 --> 00:04:11,230 that the boundary between the 74 00:04:17,890 --> 00:04:14,269 terrestrial planets and the gaseous 75 00:04:20,529 --> 00:04:17,900 planet is around 1.6 Earth radii we 76 00:04:22,690 --> 00:04:20,539 chose to use two Earth radii to account 77 00:04:24,550 --> 00:04:22,700 for any uncertainties that came up in 78 00:04:27,640 --> 00:04:24,560 this della parameters that we're using 79 00:04:30,460 --> 00:04:27,650 and also the planetary parameters so we 80 00:04:31,700 --> 00:04:30,470 didn't want to inject any potentially 81 00:04:34,880 --> 00:04:31,710 terrestrial planets from 82 00:04:40,520 --> 00:04:34,890 tables so the four tables that we ended 83 00:04:43,220 --> 00:04:40,530 up with a table one at 20 with 20 84 00:04:47,230 --> 00:04:43,230 candidates sorry table 229 candidates 85 00:04:48,530 --> 00:04:47,240 table 363 candidates and table for with 86 00:04:50,570 --> 00:04:48,540 104 87 00:04:53,510 --> 00:04:50,580 candidates and each of these tables 88 00:04:55,430 --> 00:04:53,520 you'll find can be subsets of the others 89 00:04:57,710 --> 00:04:55,440 so table one which had our most 90 00:05:03,800 --> 00:04:57,720 stringent parameters is actually a 91 00:05:06,740 --> 00:05:03,810 subset of each of the other table so we 92 00:05:09,680 --> 00:05:06,750 can see much more clearly with this 93 00:05:13,130 --> 00:05:09,690 beautiful graphic which I've stolen from 94 00:05:17,180 --> 00:05:13,140 sunny harmon thank you sunny 95 00:05:18,710 --> 00:05:17,190 the have dual zone boundaries and we've 96 00:05:21,340 --> 00:05:18,720 seen Lee a couple iterations of this 97 00:05:27,160 --> 00:05:21,350 before today but in case you were asleep 98 00:05:32,380 --> 00:05:27,170 we'll go through it again as I go back 99 00:05:35,870 --> 00:05:32,390 okay so we have on the y-axis with 100 00:05:37,820 --> 00:05:35,880 increasing temperature of the staff you 101 00:05:39,620 --> 00:05:37,830 can see the change of the Hamill's and 102 00:05:42,470 --> 00:05:39,630 with the increase in temperature and on 103 00:05:47,240 --> 00:05:42,480 the bottom is not distance but there's 104 00:05:51,080 --> 00:05:47,250 still a flux and you can see f lines up 105 00:05:52,940 --> 00:05:51,090 with 100% so planets on the left-hand 106 00:05:54,380 --> 00:05:52,950 side of the graph are receiving more 107 00:05:54,770 --> 00:05:54,390 flux than the plants on the right-hand 108 00:05:57,950 --> 00:05:54,780 side 109 00:06:00,410 --> 00:05:57,960 and so the planets that are depicted 110 00:06:03,320 --> 00:06:00,420 here actually those depictions of the 111 00:06:05,960 --> 00:06:03,330 planets from our table - which is the 112 00:06:12,640 --> 00:06:05,970 less than two Earth radii in the 113 00:06:16,220 --> 00:06:12,650 optimistic capitalism so we plotted the 114 00:06:18,740 --> 00:06:16,230 histogram of the data set in the green 115 00:06:22,910 --> 00:06:18,750 we have our habitable zone candidates 116 00:06:25,610 --> 00:06:22,920 from Kepler and the grey is the entire 117 00:06:28,430 --> 00:06:25,620 Kepler catalog and we found that the 118 00:06:33,020 --> 00:06:28,440 distributions looked pretty much the 119 00:06:37,520 --> 00:06:33,030 same which was awesome and so we plotted 120 00:06:40,550 --> 00:06:37,530 a power law on each data set as you can 121 00:06:44,030 --> 00:06:40,560 see here we excluded the first two bins 122 00:06:45,280 --> 00:06:44,040 from our power laws due to lack of 123 00:06:49,990 --> 00:06:45,290 completeness or 124 00:06:52,660 --> 00:06:50,000 any planets less than 1.5 Earth radii so 125 00:06:54,310 --> 00:06:52,670 the power laws are not meant to 126 00:06:58,240 --> 00:06:54,320 represent complete list but just be a 127 00:07:00,700 --> 00:06:58,250 direct comparison of the entire Kepler 128 00:07:04,810 --> 00:07:00,710 catabolic versus the ones down in the 129 00:07:07,420 --> 00:07:04,820 Hubble's room so we saw that there was a 130 00:07:10,240 --> 00:07:07,430 very slight difference in the slope of 131 00:07:11,770 --> 00:07:10,250 each of the two datasets which implied 132 00:07:15,100 --> 00:07:11,780 that there was less we were less likely 133 00:07:16,930 --> 00:07:15,110 inside the smaller planets in the 134 00:07:20,230 --> 00:07:16,940 habitable zone but you need to remember 135 00:07:21,880 --> 00:07:20,240 also that planets in the habitable zone 136 00:07:27,130 --> 00:07:21,890 tend to be further away from their star 137 00:07:29,860 --> 00:07:27,140 and so we are less likely be able to see 138 00:07:32,050 --> 00:07:29,870 in them because their orbital period can 139 00:07:35,550 --> 00:07:32,060 mean that they don't transit the star 140 00:07:38,230 --> 00:07:35,560 often enough to be seen or confirmed and 141 00:07:40,780 --> 00:07:38,240 they're sometimes the orbital period can 142 00:07:42,550 --> 00:07:40,790 actually correspond with orbital period 143 00:07:46,030 --> 00:07:42,560 of Kepler spacecraft itself which 144 00:07:47,800 --> 00:07:46,040 increases the noise significantly so 145 00:07:50,680 --> 00:07:47,810 after doing the maximum likelihood 146 00:07:52,690 --> 00:07:50,690 estimator we found that there was no 147 00:07:55,620 --> 00:07:52,700 statistically significant difference 148 00:07:57,970 --> 00:07:55,630 between the two data sets which is 149 00:08:01,180 --> 00:07:57,980 excellent news because it means that we 150 00:08:05,290 --> 00:08:01,190 can use the distributions of any wide 151 00:08:07,870 --> 00:08:05,300 sample of planets and relate it to the 152 00:08:10,540 --> 00:08:07,880 distribution of the herald zone planets 153 00:08:13,480 --> 00:08:10,550 and considering the Hubble zoom planets 154 00:08:15,880 --> 00:08:13,490 are harder to find this will be really 155 00:08:21,030 --> 00:08:15,890 helpful in future statistical 156 00:08:25,680 --> 00:08:21,040 distributions or pebbles own one so our 157 00:08:28,570 --> 00:08:25,690 next steps the table that we've created 158 00:08:30,910 --> 00:08:28,580 have both confirmed and unconfident 159 00:08:35,620 --> 00:08:30,920 planets so validation of the unconfirmed 160 00:08:37,300 --> 00:08:35,630 planets is our next priority validation 161 00:08:39,640 --> 00:08:37,310 of category 1 and 2 candidates is 162 00:08:42,219 --> 00:08:39,650 actually underway as we at the moment 163 00:08:48,180 --> 00:08:42,229 using primarily adaptive optics and 164 00:08:53,790 --> 00:08:50,560 aslak 165 00:08:58,090 --> 00:08:53,800 with comparison of catalogs with 166 00:09:00,610 --> 00:08:58,100 estimate as Kepler's primary mission was 167 00:09:02,800 --> 00:09:00,620 to determine a to us we can use our 168 00:09:08,460 --> 00:09:02,810 catalog with the occurrence rate 169 00:09:11,920 --> 00:09:08,470 calculations of the Kepler mission and 170 00:09:15,579 --> 00:09:11,930 improving stellar parameters sir I'm 171 00:09:18,490 --> 00:09:15,589 clearing those parameters needs to be 172 00:09:21,189 --> 00:09:18,500 continued obviously our Hubble's own 173 00:09:25,870 --> 00:09:21,199 calculations of the story of the 174 00:09:27,629 --> 00:09:25,880 boundaries is needs what is reliant 175 00:09:29,650 --> 00:09:27,639 sorry I'm still the parameters so 176 00:09:31,449 --> 00:09:29,660 improving these stellar parameters is 177 00:09:35,970 --> 00:09:31,459 only going to be able to help us to 178 00:09:40,120 --> 00:09:35,980 refine our gallery or our catalog and 179 00:09:42,639 --> 00:09:40,130 lastly the category for candidates which 180 00:09:45,370 --> 00:09:42,649 this is my the most exciting bit for me 181 00:09:49,090 --> 00:09:45,380 was the amount of giant planets that we 182 00:09:52,600 --> 00:09:49,100 found in the optimistic habitable zone 183 00:09:57,120 --> 00:09:52,610 so royal giant planets themselves are 184 00:10:00,670 --> 00:09:57,130 not ideal candidates for finding life 185 00:10:03,460 --> 00:10:00,680 they do open the possibility of large 186 00:10:08,769 --> 00:10:03,470 terrestrial eggs or moons and so these 187 00:10:11,199 --> 00:10:08,779 moons expect this and famine yet but if 188 00:10:13,990 --> 00:10:11,209 they exist then they would also be in 189 00:10:17,110 --> 00:10:14,000 the Hubble zone and so could be great 190 00:10:21,579 --> 00:10:17,120 candidates for finding life out in the